The latest Incentive Travel Index (ITI) paints a cautious picture of the market, with activity expected to remain broadly stable in 2027 while geopolitical uncertainty, rising costs and constraints on airline capacity reshape how planners choose and deliver programmes.
Launched at IMEX America by the Incentive Research Foundation (IRF) and SITE, the research was produced with Oxford Economics and gathered responses from 2,017 incentive travel professionals across 83 countries.
The findings suggest an industry still committed to incentive travel, but facing increasingly difficult choices about where to go and how to protect the quality of the experience.
Some 62% of buyers expect activity, measured by participant numbers, to remain about the same in 2027, while 28.2% anticipate growth.
While average global spend per person increased by 7.8% to $5,500 in 2026, including airfare, almost a third of buyers plan to trim programmes in 2027.
Among those making reductions, gifting is the most common target, followed by choosing a less expensive destination and shortening the trip. Buyers planning upgrades are prioritising activities and accommodation.
Geopolitical uncertainty is already translating into booking decisions. More than three in five buyers globally say instability is disrupting the destinations they use, rising to 84.6% among buyers based in Western Europe.
Almost two-thirds of buyers answering a separate question have removed a previously considered destination from a shortlist because of geopolitical sentiment over the past year. Nearly 40% have relocated a confirmed programme to an alternative destination.
Air access is also becoming a more prominent challenge. 40% of US buyers cite securing airlift and airline capacity as a near-term concern, compared with 12% in last year’s Index. Personal safety is their most commonly cited destination disqualifier, followed by difficult air access and geopolitical factors.
The findings also show that 64% of the full survey sample agree recent political events will lead to a decline in inbound incentive travel to the United States. The finding reflects respondents’ expectations rather than a measured fall in arrivals.
Europe, meanwhile, is gaining traction in destination planning. Western Europe records the strongest net momentum for increased use: among buyers currently using the region, the share planning to use it more exceeds those planning reductions by 29.3 percentage points. Emerging Europe and the Caribbean follow.
Relationships remain central to navigating uncertainty. More than three-quarters of buyers say their relationships and experience help them distinguish conditions on the ground from headline sentiment and perceived risk.
Padraic Gilligan, head of consultancy and research at SITE, said: “The value of incentive travel depends on delivering an experience people want to earn and can reach with confidence. This year’s Index gives our industry evidence to have more informed conversations with clients and destination partners about the choices behind a successful programme.”
AI is also becoming more embedded in planning. Across the global buyer sample, 76.6% report using or planning to use it for destination research and planning. However, only 24.4% of respondents agree companies using AI are already more successful at designing personalised, cost-effective and logistically optimised programmes.
Stephanie Harris, president of the IRF, said: “The 2026 Index underscores that incentive travel program owners must make strategic choices at every stage of the program cycle. Those that use better data, work closely across partnerships, and keep the attendee at the centre of decisions will be best positioned to demonstrate the value of incentive travel.”
A UK perspective
A separate UK breakdown recently shared by SITE GB at CHS Manchester offers a more upbeat view of future activity, with the UK supply side more bullish than the global average. The analysis is based on 44 respondents, predominantly suppliers and DMCs, so the findings provide a directional snapshot.
Among UK suppliers and DMCs, the balance expecting activity to increase rather than decline in 2027 stands at 29 percentage points, compared with 17 globally. Confidence strengthens further for 2028, despite immediate budget pressures. A third of UK suppliers expect clients to trim spend per person in 2027, but that proportion falls to 9% for 2028, suggesting a period of careful cost management before greater investment returns.
Political concerns also feature prominently. In the UK breakdown, 56% of respondents answering the relevant question identify political considerations as a short-term challenge, compared with 35% globally. Almost a third flag fear of not being welcome in certain destinations, roughly twice the global proportion.
The UK findings also suggest slower adoption of AI, with a quarter of respondents answering that question not currently using it, compared with 15% globally. Destination research is an established application, but UK use trails the global figures in programme design and budgeting, suggesting scope to apply the technology more widely across planning.
Meanwhile, cultural and sightseeing experiences have gained importance, alongside luxury and bucket-list inclusions, while free time is also a greater priority.
The full report is available at the Incentive Travel Index website.